Future aspects of Russia-Ukraine

The Plan, as they say, is invariably the first casualty in the war. The same appears to be the case in the ongoing conflict in what is being termed by a few as Europe's Afghanistan. 

Putin, as it appears now, possibly chose a swift and surgical campaign over all-out destruction of Ukraine to tame the latter. However, that seems to be a casualty. No wonder then that the destruction mode has just about begun with blatant targeting of the civilian assets inside Ukraine.

A lot more has been happening beyond the battlefield too. The USA under Biden continues to look spineless. And NATO is no different. However, a consolidation of the EU has been happening at an amazing pace. As a result, the European nations who are members of NATO and yet not very willing to jump into the fire, have suddenly changed their stance as it relates to their affiliation with the EU. EU, though a business and political entity, has acquired military teeth and effective ones on that.

China, over the past two days, has stepped back a bit. Having signed some agreements with the Russians on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics (one agreement involved assurance of financial support by china in the event of economic sanctions), the western onslaught on banking transactions, Russian assets (more than 6.5B USD worth) and technical assets has forced china to recoil, and possibly, for good. In any case, despite all the Russian-Chinese warming relationship (more so out of a common enemy than anything else) in the recent past, the two nations don't enjoy good historical ties or past. In any case, with less than 2% of international trade with Russia, China doesn't appear to bet on Putin. However, such a stepping back is likely to create an issue for Xi Jing to achieve his ambition to remain the CCP boss for life. If that be so, what is the way out for him? Will he look towards creating trouble for Taiwan or India to galvanise his support (already on a decline) among his masses? Can't be ruled out!

SO, what next? As the western narrative is trying to show, Putin is running out of patience. Whether the unexpected resistance, own logistics failure or poor performance of war-fighting machinery may be the reason for his plan becoming a casualty, his frustration (if it continues to rise) will spell a bigger disaster not only for Ukraine but also for the Russians and the rest of the world. Strong voices are being heard inside Russia since most of the rich Russians have been affected by the sanctions. Is there a chance of a revolt/revolution against Putin? Well, can't be ruled out but a dictator that Putin is, he is not likely to step back in the face of adversity; he may opt to go reckless beyond an unexpected limit. Instead of allowing the folks back home to bring him down, he may declare himself to be a wartime President and create immunity for himself in the semi-democratic system that Russia follows. That is where the real danger lies.

If a good sense prevails and some agreement arrives between the Russians and Ukrainians, there may be some hope. Or else, we will be witnessing the biggest catastrophe of this century.

 There is enough propaganda material floating on the social media; is enough to satiate anyone with any kind of stand on the issue--be it pro/Anti/neutral. 

Wars, as we know, can be started by anyone but conflicts tend to spiral and invariably, the man who starts a conflict, is seldom able to finish it.

That said, no one can predict Putin though NATO and the West's impotence is now beyond any debate. EU is trying to stand on its own and a bit about it has been written in the previous post.

With Russia assuring the supply of S400, things look settled for us as far as this conflict is concerned. By the time every Indian student is back home, UP election exit polls/election results will be around and our focus will shift. However, while votes get counted, this conflict will be in a crucial phase. Russians, already coming out of self-imposed restraint, are likely to destroy Ukraine beyond a measure and that will be unfortunate. But what next? Will NATO get sucked in? Not likely since that would initiate a global war. It is, thus, likely that either a truce through talks or after a rout of Ukraine, will follow through sabre-rattling will continue. Putin getting overthrown or the Russian army rebelling against their govt are some of the other (though very remote) possibilities. Whatever it is, it will happen solely because of Russians and not because of anyone else.

As the dust begins to settle, the Chinese may jump in. As mentioned in the previous post, Xi is on a slippery path and his half-hearted love affair with Putin may turn bitter due to the pressure of the sanctions. If that happens, he may simply walk into Taiwan, knowing well Biden's weak knees. The ongoing American claim that now the US will be able to focus solely on the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific, will also be tested in the process. Though the outcome is more or less known, there is also a possibility of the Chinese going to do something along the LAC with India. 

The coming months of 2022, therefore, hold a lot of surprises. No one can predict anything but some heat is likely to remain global affairs throughout this year. Whosoever declared 2020 and 2021 as villains, may have reasons to add 2022 to the list; Ukrainians, in any case, will never forget 2022.

Written by:- (Retd) Colonel Ajay Kumar Raina